Monday 11.30-12.30 (Salisbury Hall)

EvalC3: A package of tools for exploring and evaluating complex causal configurations: Hur Hassnain, War Child; Mark Skipper, Aptivate; and Rick Davies, Independent Consultant
EvalC3 is a free Excel-based package of data analysis tools. Users can design and evaluate predictive models either manually or using algorithms. Models can be compared and specific cases identified for follow-up within-case analysis of causes at work. Participants will walk through the work flow and be able to test out models of their own design. They will also hear and discuss lessons from an analysis of data from War Child’s child resettlement program in Afghanistan.

Session Details:

The aim of this session is to introduce EvalC3 and to excite participants’ interest in using EvalC3 to explore their own data.

The session will include:

  • The background to how and why EvalC3 was developed, and how it differs and adds value compared to the alternatives.
  • A live walk though of the six stages in the analysis process, using data from a published sturdy of women’s representation in parliaments in 26 African countries.
  • During the above, the opportunity for participants to design and test their own predictive models.
  • A report on lessons learned from War Child’s experience of using EvalC3 to analyse data on its child resettlement program in Afghanistan. o An open discussion of all the above, but with a focus on a range of potential applications that participants may have in mind.

Before or after the session, participants can find detailed guidance on the use and potential of EvalC3 on the supporting website. A free copy of EvalC3 will be available to any interested participants, before or after the session. Free technical support, via Skype video, is also available to those wanting to use EvalC3 to explore a data set they have at hand or plan to acquire.

Optional background reading:

  • “Evaluating the impact of Flexible development interventions using a ‘loose’ theory of change: Reflections on the Australia-Mekong NGO Engagement Platform” ODI Methods Lab. March 2016
  • Goertz, G., Mahoney, J., 2012. A Tale of Two Cultures: Qualitative and Quantitative Research in the Social Sciences. Princeton University Press. (Great background context for the kind of analyses possible with EvalC3.)
  • Kotu, V., Deshpande, B., 2014. Predictive Analytics and Data Mining: Concepts and Practice with RapidMiner. Morgan Kaufmann. (Contains very useful chapters on Decision Tree models.)

Session Leads:

Rick Davies, Monitoring and Evaluation Consultant, based in Cambridge, UK. His clients are international development aid organisations. His skills include the management of evaluations, the design of M&E strategies & frameworks, M&E capacity building and the development of evaluation methodologies. He has worked extensively in Africa and Asia. Rick also manages the Monitoring and Evaluation NEWS website (, and associated email lists with global memberships, which have been in operation since 1997. His PhD thesis on organisational learning in NGOs in Bangladesh led to the development of a method of impact monitoring known as the “Most Significant Change” (MSC) technique, now widely used in developed and developing countries. In recent year his focus has been on methods of representing, analysing and evaluating complex programmes. These include the use of Predictive Analytics algorithms, Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA), Social Network Analysis and ethnographic methods. Publications:

Mark Skipperpractitioner of both computer science and international development. He now works with Aptivate where he builds M&E Data systems and digital services for the International Development community. He has a PhD in programming language theory and a Certificate in Education for sustainability from Schumacher College Experience and expertise in:

  • Software engineering / Full stack web development with Python/Django Javascript and Elm
  • Agile project management
  • Discovery and UX design / Requirements analysis / Software Architecture / Database Design
  • Group process design and facilitation / Training and education Excels as part of a dynamic team who have fun working together, solve problems and produce amazing results.

Hur Hassnain, design, monitoring and evaluation expert with over thirteen years of hands-on experience in some of the most volatile parts of Asia, Africa, Middle-East and Europe. In his professional career Hur has successfully designed, commissioned and conducted research and evaluations in insecure environments for the UN agencies, European Commission, private donors and governments of UK, Switzerland, Netherlands and Norway. Currently he is working with War Child UK in its Headquarters in London as Monitoring, Evaluation, Accountability and Learning Adviser. Hur also serves on the Board of Directors at the International Development Evaluation Association (IDEAS), one of the largest global development evaluation association. Hur’s collection of Urdu poetry was published in Pakistan in 2006. He can be reached at hurhassnain[at]


EVAL C3 HHassnain MSkipper RDavies